Reasoning
The exact variant was reported in 50 Iranian beta-thalassemia-intermedia patients: 3.0% of 100 analyzed chromosomes, corresponding to 3 variant and 97 non-variant chromosomes. As a matched-ancestry population comparison, gnomAD v4.1 Middle Eastern controls had 12/6,062 variant alleles and 6,050 non-variant alleles. I computed the case-control odds ratio as (3x6050)/(97x12)=15.59, with a Woolf 95% CI of 4.33-56.14. The governing ACMG threshold is OR >5.0 with a confidence interval that does not include 1.0; explicit comparison: 15.59 > 5.0? yes, and 4.33-56.14 includes 1.0? no. Therefore PS4 is met. The literature_pass PS4 leads were checked: the directly extracted PMID:31899996 finding verifies the exact variant, case cohort, and 3.0% frequency; other literature leads lacked a verified case-control estimate in the supplied evidence. The ClinGen HBB expert-panel record also reports the variant in 56 individuals with severe beta-thalassemia, but does not provide a control denominator or confidence interval and was not used as the quantitative comparison.
Rule
The prevalence of the variant in affected individuals is significantly increased compared to the prevalence in controls. ... Relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR), as obtained from case-control studies, is >5.0 and the confidence interval around the estimate of RR or OR does not include 1.0.
Evidence considered
- Association between Different Polymorphic Markers and beta-Thalassemia Intermedia in Central Iran, Discussion paragraph 2 and Tables 1-2: HBB c.93-21G>A was present in 3.0% of 100 analyzed beta-thalassemia-intermedia chromosomes; the cohort included one compound-heterozygous and one homozygous patient.
- gnomAD v4.1 Middle Eastern population: 12/6,062 alleles carried the variant (AF 0.00197954), used as the matched-ancestry control comparison.
- Computed case-control OR from 3/97 case alleles and 12/6050 control alleles: OR=(3x6050)/(97x12)=15.59; Woolf 95% CI=4.33-56.14.
- Exact comparison required by the governing rule: OR 15.59 > 5.0? yes; 95% CI 4.33-56.14 includes 1.0? no.
- ClinVar exact-variant expert-panel record: the variant is Pathogenic and has been detected in 56 individuals with severe beta-thalassemia, most transfusion dependent; no control denominator or confidence interval was available from that record.
Sources