Reasoning
Generic ACMG/AMP PS4 is met by the exact-variant case-control comparison reported in PMID:31076447. The paper reports p.G646Wfs*12/c.1934dup in 33 of 333 patients with primary myelofibrosis. Using the gnomAD v4.1 aggregate frequency of 685/1,601,778 alleles as an approximate control carrier count of 685/800,889 individuals, the carrier-count table is 33 affected carriers, 300 affected noncarriers, 685 control carriers, and 800,204 control noncarriers. The calculated odds ratio is 128.50 with an approximate 95% CI of 89.01-185.51. The governing ACMG/AMP threshold is OR >5.0 with a confidence interval that does not include 1.0; therefore 128.50 > 5.0 and 89.01-185.51 excludes 1.0. Human review is needed because the cohort is a primary-myelofibrosis cohort and the variant has known somatic/artifact-detection context, while gnomAD is not explicitly ancestry-matched in the supplied evidence.
Rule
The prevalence of the variant in affected individuals is significantly increased compared to the prevalence in controls. ... Relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR), as obtained from case-control studies, is >5.0 and the confidence interval around the estimate of RR or OR does not include 1.0.
Evidence considered
- PMID:31076447, Results/Table 1: exact ASXL1 p.G646Wfs*12 (c.1934dup) variant in 33 of 333 primary-myelofibrosis patients.
- gnomAD v4.1: 685/1,601,778 alleles; for the approximate carrier comparison, treated the 685 observed alleles as 685 heterozygous control carriers among 800,889 individuals.
- Calculated from those counts: OR = (33 x 800,204)/(300 x 685) = 128.50; approximate 95% CI = 89.01-185.51.
Still missing
- The published case cohort and gnomAD controls are not explicitly ancestry-matched in the supplied evidence.
- The cohort is primary myelofibrosis and may represent somatic rather than constitutional occurrence; confirm applicability to the intended germline disease context.
Sources