Reasoning
PS4 is met under the generic ACMG/AMP rule. PMID:11967536 explicitly reports CHEK2*1100delC, corresponding to this exact c.1100del frameshift, in affected individuals and healthy controls. In the breast-cancer families containing male breast cancer, the allele occurred in 7/52 affected individuals versus 18/1620 healthy controls. Treating this as a case-control comparison, I calculated OR = (7 x 1602)/(45 x 18) = 13.84 with an approximate Wald 95% CI of 5.51-34.81; the inequality is 13.84 > 5.0? yes, and the CI excludes 1.0. The broader affected-family comparison was 55/1071 versus 18/1620, OR 4.82 (95% CI 2.81-8.25), which does not independently exceed 5. PMID:28779002 independently reports the exact c.1100delC variant in 13,087 cases and 5,488 controls with OR 3.18 (95% CI 2.01-4.92), supporting enrichment but not independently meeting the >5 threshold. The male-breast-cancer-family comparison in PMID:11967536 supplies the qualifying PS4 evidence.
Rule
The prevalence of the variant in affected individuals is significantly increased compared to the prevalence in controls. ... Relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR), as obtained from case-control studies, is >5.0 and the confidence interval around the estimate of RR or OR does not include 1.0.
Evidence considered
- PMID:11967536, Abstract and Results/Table 1: CHEK2*1100delC was present in 7/52 affected individuals from BRCA1/BRCA2-negative families containing male breast cancer and 18/1620 healthy controls; the exact variant was also present in 55/1071 affected individuals from the broader affected-family cohort.
- PMID:11967536, computed case-control comparison from the reported counts: OR=(7/45)/(18/1602)=13.84; approximate Wald 95% CI=5.51-34.81. Explicit threshold check: 13.84 > 5.0? yes; CI excludes 1.0.
- PMID:28779002, Results, BC risks associated with ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2 truncating variants: exact CHEK2 c.1100delC (p.Thr367MetfsTer15) was associated with OR=3.18 (95% CI 2.01-4.92) in 13,087 breast-cancer cases and 5,488 controls.
- The literature_pass ai-classified PS4 leads were checked against the available abstract/full-text extracts: PMID:11967536 confirms exact-variant affected/control frequencies; PMID:18172190 reports a meta-analysis of 26,000 cases and 27,000 controls; PMID:21876083 reports affected patients and controls; PMID:21956126 reports Danish/German case-control studies; PMID:25431674 and PMID:26629066 report prostate-cancer associations. The qualifying numeric comparison used here is the exact-variant case/control count comparison from PMID:11967536, with independent support from PMID:28779002.
Sources